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Investing.com -- Investor sentiment around U.S. equities has turned increasingly bullish, though RBC Capital Markets warns that the market may be nearing a point of overextension.
After meeting with institutional investors last week, RBC strategists point out that while investors “were not uniformly bullish,” many appeared “downright excited,” and even those who were previously cautious were “talking themselves into a more bullish stance.”
This bullishness has evolved rapidly in recent weeks. Investors are now emphasizing capital expenditure incentives in the new tax legislation and expressing renewed enthusiasm for AI-related productivity gains.
The belief that tariffs will not meaningfully impact inflation or labor markets is becoming widespread, while anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts and a weaker dollar are also adding to optimism.
Still, RBC’s team cautions against complacency. “The rebound is starting to feel full from a few different vantage points,” the strategists led by Lori Calvasina wrote.
“One of the points we made in most of our meetings last week was that while we understood the stock market’s fierce rally from a sentiment perspective, that the stock market has been feeling a bit overbought to us from a fundamental perspective,” they said.
Their updated valuation models suggest fair value for the S&P 500 sits between 5,730 and 6,200, depending on macro assumptions—levels that “still fall short of current” market prices.
Moreover, sentiment indicators like the AAII net bulls index are approaching levels that previously marked market tops.
Also, not all indicators point to sustained strength. RBC highlighted a disconnect between investor optimism and persistent caution among corporate executives.
“The c-suite has not experienced the same kind of positive inflection in sentiment that has been seen in recent consumer, small business, and investor surveys,” the note said, citing the latest Duke CFO survey.
That survey revealed widespread concern over tariffs, with many companies planning to pass higher costs onto customers and reporting reduced capex plans.
In sum, while equity sentiment has improved and the current rally may have more room, risks remain. Should inflation pressures re-emerge or the Fed delay cuts, the resulting disappointment “will come as a negative surprise to many investors," RBC strategists warned.