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Investing.com -- Tesla could deploy as many as 1,500 robotaxis by the end of 2025, according to Deutsche Bank, citing Elon Musk’s recent comments about a planned large-scale rollout in the Bay Area and Austin.
The bank estimates Tesla currently operates about 150 to 200 autonomous vehicles (AVs), implying a sharp ramp-up in the coming months.
Musk said there should be at least 1,000 vehicles in the Bay Area fleet by the end of the year and 500 or more in Austin. Safety drivers are expected to be removed in Austin in December, consistent with Tesla’s earlier comments, as the company finalizes its fleet management and ride-hailing software.
The system still needs refinement to manage demand peaks, parking, and airport drop-off rules, analysts said.
Assuming Tesla meets the target of around 1,500 vehicles by year-end, Deutsche Bank projects the fleet could grow to over 2,500 by mid-2026 as it expands into new cities such as Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Miami.
“And while that number seems small, Waymo has garnered >20% of ride-hail market share in San Francisco using what we estimate to be ~800 AVs,” analysts led by Edison Yu said in a note.
Beyond robotaxis, Musk also teased a new Tesla Roadster that could fly using some “crazy” technology, with a potential unveiling by year-end.
Yu said he doesn’t expect Tesla to pursue a full-fledged electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft like those developed by Archer or Joby, but rather a vehicle that can “drive normally and hover using cold gas thrusters.” Musk first mentioned the concept in 2018.
While Tesla has the battery and manufacturing expertise to build a proper eVTOL, “the main factor holding the company back is regulation,” the analysts added. The regulatory hurdles for Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification are far greater than those for automotive or robotics products, they wrote.
Deutsche Bank raised its price target on Tesla shares to $470 from $440, maintaining a Buy rating. The new target incorporates higher estimates for the robotaxi business within the firm’s sum-of-the-parts valuation, which attributes $148 per share to robotaxi operations by 2035.
The analysts warned, however, that Tesla still faces risks tied to EV demand, execution in mobility and robotics, and regulatory scrutiny over real-world AI deployments.