Cantor starts coverage on Paylocity, Workday, Paycom as HCM sector stabilizes

Published 14/08/2025, 14:44
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Cantor Fitzgerald started coverage of Paylocity, Workday and Paycom, saying the human capital management (HCM) industry has emerged from a post-pandemic slowdown and now offers reasonable risk-reward for selective investors.

The brokerage gave Overweight ratings to Paylocity with a $215 price target and Workday with a $265 target, while assigning Paycom a Neutral rating and a $230 target.

Cantor said the pandemic fueled a sharp acceleration in the HCM industry during 2021–2022, followed by a “hangover” in 2023–2024 as consensus forecasts were repeatedly lowered.

It sees the sector now in a more mature phase, with revenue growth expectations reset to about 10% annually by 2026 and valuations at about 5.5 times enterprise value to 2026 revenue and 22 times 2026 earnings.

Paylocity, which Cantor said has the best quantitative setup, could deliver “beat and raise” results in fiscal 2026 and 2027, aided by cross-selling opportunities from its Airbase finance platform, estimated to represent a $250 million market.

For Workday, the brokerage said investor concerns about slowing growth, a weaker macroeconomic backdrop, and potential disruption from artificial intelligence have become too pessimistic.

It called Workday a high-quality company with an entrenched position in the enterprise market, new growth avenues, and room for margin expansion, trading near historic lows on earnings and cash flow multiples.

Cantor said Paycom has taken steps to recover from internal disruptions in 2023–2024, changing its go-to-market messaging and improving operations, but considers the shares fairly valued after recent gains.

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