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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has revised its outlook for Carter’s (NYSE:CRI) Inc. to negative from stable, citing declining profitability and increased pressure on the company’s revenue and EBITDA due to lower demand and higher product costs. Despite this, the issuer credit rating of ’BB+’ and the issue-level rating on the company’s senior unsecured notes have been affirmed.
The children’s apparel marketer has seen a significant decrease in profits, leading to a reduction in its quarterly dividend. The company’s operating performance has been negatively impacted by lower demand and increased product costs, a result of tariffs. Carter’s topline and EBITDA have been on a downward trend for the past three years, with S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA down 11% in the last 12-month period ending March 31, 2025.
This decline is attributed to increased price competition from private labels, weak consumer spending due to persistent inflation, strengthening appeal of mass channel retailers, and changes in demographics with birth rates remaining flat to modestly down in the U.S. S&P Global Ratings has revised its forecast for Carter’s for fiscal 2025 and 2026, expecting declines in topline and EBITDA to accelerate in 2025 due to these factors.
Carter’s reported revenue is expected to decline by mid-single-digit percent in 2025, reflecting lower demand across all three segments amid weak consumer sentiment and inflationary pressure. S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA is predicted to decline more than 35% in 2025. In 2026, the decline in topline growth is projected to moderate to a low-single-digit percent decrease as the company continues to improve its product offerings, with its S&P Global Ratings-adjusted EBITDA expected to decline by 9% in 2026.
The company recently cut its quarterly dividend by almost 70% to $0.25 per share from $0.80 per share, payable in June, and indicated that future dividends will be at the discretion of the board based on business conditions, the company’s future financial performance, and investment priorities. Carter’s also withdrew its 2025 guidance in April given the new CEO transition and ongoing economic uncertainty.
Carter’s paused share repurchases during the third quarter 2024 and hasn’t repurchased any shares in the fourth quarter or first quarter of 2025. Given the current underperformance, the company is expected to pause any future dividend and share repurchase until it improves its operating performance and strengthens its financial position. The new CEO will share a new strategic plan to return to growth on the second quarter earnings call in late July.
Carter’s sources a majority of its products from Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, and India, which account for 75% of the total products outsourced. The company has limited exposure to China, with finished goods imports currently accounting for nearly 5%, significantly reduced from more than 55% over a decade ago. The company is expected to mitigate the effect of tariffs by cost sharing with vendors, shifting country of origin mix, adjusting inventory management, and potential price increase.
The negative outlook reflects the potential for a lower rating in the next 12 months if the company’s operating performance continues to deteriorate. S&P Global Ratings could lower its ratings if operating performance continues to deteriorate, such that it has a less favorable view of its business risk profile or S&P Global Ratings-adjusted leverage sustains above 2.5x. The outlook could be revised to stable if the company’s operating performance improves, possibly from increased product and brand relevance, improved value proposition, increased retail store productivity, or if the company is able to successfully offset the higher product cost pressures from tariff with price increases, cost savings, or other mitigation efforts.
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