Citi’s valuation model says AI not in a bubble yet

Published 20/10/2025, 12:28
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Investing.com -- Artificial intelligence stocks may look expensive after recent strong gains, but Citi says they still don’t appear to be in bubble territory.

“AI does not look like a bubble yet based on our valuation monitor,” analysts at Citi wrote, though they added that “there are some growing pockets of valuation concern when we dive deeper within the theme, especially in more asset heavy sub-categories.”

Citi’s a note explained that while recent price action has been “abnormally strong,” there are “only a couple ‘red flags’ in our valuation monitor for broad AI exposure.” 

As a result, the bank said it “would stay invested in AI,” but noted that taking profits makes sense in “more U.S. asset heavy businesses and International AI Adopters.”

The bank advised investors to diversify and layer in GARP, referring to its strategy of focusing on “AI at a Reasonable Price.” 

Citi remarked that these baskets “include a diversified set of names where FY3 EPS consensus is in-line/ahead of market-implied expectations,” which it believes “should lead investors away from the most acute pockets of bubble risk.”

Citi also introduced a new layer to its AI classification by business model, expanding on its prior work that segmented the sector by “region, sector, and value chain position.” 

The bank commented that the distinction between “asset light versus asset heavy companies” would be key in tracking the theme as “the number of stocks tied to AI expands.”

“When bubbles do build, it’s earnings expectations faltering that ultimately end the run,” Citi said, adding that it remains “comfortable with AI growth outlooks” given “impressive Mega Cap Growth free cash flow” and rising AI capital expenditure estimates.

 

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