Nucor earnings beat by $0.08, revenue fell short of estimates
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) released a comprehensive report on Brazilian education stocks on Tuesday. "Taking a hard test?" was the provocative title of the document, highlighting the challenges in the sector for 2025.
"Companies are likely to report strong 2024 free cash flow, primarily from receivables recovery, creating tough comps for 2025 amid limited EBITDA evolution, fewer working capital levers, and rising interest rates," stated Mauricio Cepeda, Lucas Nagano, and Artur Alves, analysts at the American bank.
They also highlighted regulation, the slowdown in enrolments in Distance Learning, and margin pressures on the top and bottom lines of the balance sheet as the main negative factors for the year. However, the analysts explained how to explore relative opportunities in education stocks amidst turbulent sector and market conditions.
A highlight of the report was the upgrade of Cogna’s stock (BVMF: COGN3) (OTC: COGNY) to "Overweight", with the expectation of short-term price catalysts, and a target price updated from R$1.70 to R$2.00 per share. Additionally, the American bank maintained the shares of Ser Educacional (BVMF: SEER3) and Cruzeiro do Sul (BVMF: CSED3) at "Overweight," with expected margin gains for both companies. However, Ser’s target price was reduced from R$8.50 to R$ 6.50, while Cruzeiro do Sul’s target price remained at R$4.50.
Despite the bank noting the margin pressures in the sector due to rising costs, slower enrolment growth, and limited scale gains following cost optimization in recent years, there is an expectation of margin growth for Ser and Cruzeiro do Sul due to a solid business model in on-campus education and the maturation of medical school slots, which have a higher average revenue.
"COGN could see a re-rating from an expected margin expansion in 4Q24 (MSe: 5.5pp YoY), though its DL exposure remains a concern,” the analysts noted regarding Cogna.
Regarding other sector stocks, Morgan Stanley rated Yduqs (BVMF:YDUQ3) and Vitru (BVMF: VTRU3) as "Equalweight" due to the lack of short-term catalysts. Although Yduqs is expected to report strong cash generation in 2024 with recovery from delinquencies and late fees, this result will lead to challenging comparisons for 2025 amid a stagnant base of enrolled students, according to the analysts.
Vitru, owner of Uniasselvi and UniCesumar, derives 70% of its revenue from Distance learning amidst uncertainties of stricter regulations, as well as a slowdown in enrolments in this education mode. The Ministry of Education (MEC) announced on Monday the postponement of new distance learning rules to April 10. The ministry has already signalled stricter rules for the modality, with more in-person activities and higher infrastructure requirements, demanding higher costs. There is a risk that the government might reduce the permission for at least 40% online content, which would harm the hybrid and even in-person activities.
In addition to Yduqs, Ânima’s (BVMF: ANIM3) shares were also rated as "Equalweight," with the company at risk of being downgraded to "Underweight" given the drop in enrolments and high leverage. Meanwhile, Afya’s shares (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AFYA) were downgraded to "Underweight" with an unfavorable risk-return profile due to stressed multiples and weak long-term prospects in relation to medical school prices. Medical (TASE:BLWV) school vacancies are increasing in the market, with an average annual growth of 11% and a growth acceleration outlook of up to 39% annually with the Mais Médicos 3 program.