Could U.S. stocks rise despite signs of a slowing economy? BCA Research weighs in

Published 08/09/2025, 11:56
© Reuters.

Investing.com - Although signs of cooling are emerging in the U.S. job market and the wider economy, these trends could still offer support to stocks, according to analysts at BCA Research.

"The economy is slowing, but not collapsing, and monetary easing is imminent -- a backdrop that will benefit equities," the BCA analysts said in a note to clients.

U.S. stock futures ticked higher on Monday, as investors looked ahead to key inflation data later in the week that could sway the trajectory of upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decisions. On Friday, the main averages on Wall Street retreated, following the release of a softer-than-anticipated August nonfarm payrolls which underlined an ongoing slowdown in the American labor market.

Observers also noted that September is traditionally a weaker month for market sentiment. Uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs, a recent spike in government bond yields fueled by fiscal worries, and caution around the state of a years-long artificial intelligence boom are factors potentially impacting how investors will approach the coming days as well.

Yet, despite Friday’s decline, the benchmark S&P 500 remains not far from a record peak, while valuations in general are lofty.

Underpinning these frothy levels have been hopes that the underwhelming job market figures will persuade the Fed to slash interest rates by at least 25 basis points at its September 16-17 policy gathering. Wagers for a half-point reduction from the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% have even increased.

Against this backdrop, the BCA analysts said they remain "strategically bullish," predicting that the Fed will roll out at least two rate drawdowns by the end of 2025. They are also keeping tabs on generative AI enthusiasm and corporate earnings, "even amid numerous risks."

"However, we are tactically cautious, as seasonality, elevated valuations, and stretched technicals present near-term headwinds," the analysts flagged.

They recommended that investors assume "neutral" positioning on mega-cap technology firms, be "overweight" on real estate stocks to take advantage of the possible rate cuts, add "defensive" names in the pharmaceutical and utilities sectors, and use metals and miners as an "inflation hedge."

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.