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Investing.com -- Counterpoint Research has lowered its global smartphone shipment forecast for 2025, citing renewed concerns over U.S. tariffs. The research firm now expects shipments to grow just 1.9% year-over-year, down sharply from its earlier projection of 4.2%.
North America is set to register a decline, with the expected increase in handset prices seen as a major drag on demand.
China’s forecast was also revised to near-flat growth after a muted response to government subsidies.
“Although tariffs have played a role in our forecast revisions, we are also factoring in weakened demand not just in North America but across Europe and parts of Asia,” said Associate Director Liz Lee.
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Samsung (KS:005930) were among the brands facing downward revisions as both are expected to pass increased costs onto consumers. Still, Counterpoint sees some resilience in Apple’s prospects.
“We still expect positive 2025 shipment growth for Apple driven by the iPhone 16 series’ strong performance in Q1 2025,” Lee added, noting that premiumization trends remain supportive in markets such as India, Southeast Asia, and the Gulf.
By contrast, Huawei’s outlook has been upgraded. Associate Director Ethan Qi pointed to “an easing around sourcing bottlenecks for key components” and strong momentum in domestic segments.
While it may be “a bit soon” for a full global resurgence, Qi said improving supply chain conditions could help Huawei build “a better foothold overseas in the medium term.”
Among the top five global smartphone brands by projected shipment growth in 2025, Huawei leads with 11% year-over-year growth.
It is followed by Motorola (NYSE:MSI) and Xiaomi (OTC:XIACF) at 4% each, while realme and Apple are expected to grow 3%.
Despite some easing from earlier worst-case tariff scenarios, Counterpoint cautioned that ongoing trade uncertainty could still disrupt pricing strategies and consumer demand. The firm’s projections currently assume a relatively stable tariff environment through 2025.