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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has revised CVR Energy Inc.’s outlook to stable from negative while affirming its ratings, citing supportive refining conditions expected to continue into 2026.
The rating agency expects Group 3 2:1:1 crack spreads to remain around $22-$24 per barrel on average into 2026, benefiting CVR’s refining margins. The company’s favorable position is supported by steady product demand, limited new global capacity, and tighter mid-Continent product supply.
A significant development for CVR came from the Environmental Protection Agency’s August 2025 ruling on the Small Refinery Exemption for Wynnewood Refining Company. The decision granted 100% waivers for 2019 and 2021 compliance periods and 50% waivers for 2020, 2022, 2023, and 2024 periods, reducing CVR’s Renewable Fuel Standard liability by 424 million renewable identification numbers, representing approximately $488 million as of September 30, 2025.
S&P Global Ratings projects CVR’s adjusted debt to EBITDA ratio at about 4.5x in 2025, improving to 3.5x-4.0x in 2026. The company has prioritized debt reduction, repaying $90 million on its term loan B in recent quarters.
CVR plans to convert its Wynnewood renewable diesel unit back to hydrocarbon processing due to regulatory changes and unfavorable economics in the renewables business. This conversion is expected to generate additional cash earnings for a segment that was previously cash-flow negative.
With no major turnarounds scheduled until 2027, S&P expects CVR to generate at least $125 million in free operating cash flow in 2026.
The rating agency indicated it could take negative action if adjusted leverage rises above 5x on a sustained basis, while a positive rating action could be considered if leverage remains below 2.5x under mid-cycle conditions.
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