Deutsche Bank examines the implications of a decline in U.S. dividends

Published 08/07/2025, 15:18
© Reuters

Investing.com - S&P 500 dividend yields are now hovering around a record low, according to analysts at Deutsche Bank (ETR:DBKGn), reflecting a multi-decade era that has seen a rise in prevalance of share buybacks.

Both dividends and buybacks aim to reward shareholders for their investments. Dividends represent income for a current year and allow investors to retain their shares, while a repurchase mirrors capital gains and removes shares from the market.

But writing in a note to clients, the Deutsche Bank analysts flagged that dividend yields in the benchmark S&P 500 are now within only 20 basis points of their all-time low.

They noted that this has followed a shift that initially picked up momentum in the early 1980s, when a reduction in U.S. capital gains taxes and the implementation of clear regulatory guidelines enhanced the appeal of share buybacks.

The trend further exploded during a tech boom in the 1990s, as high-growth companies retained earnings to reinvest, rather than distribute them as dividends, the analysts added.

By the mid-2000s, buybacks had overtaken dividends as the primary way U.S. companies returned capital to shareholders and has stayed dominant ever since, they said.

The mindset of growth over income has returned "with force over the past decade, once again led by mega-cap tech," the analysts said.

Although they warned of risks from a market more driven by buybacks than dividends, including financial engineering and timing, the analysts said it remains "hard to argue with the results."

"Despite these risks, U.S. equities -- home to the most aggressive buyback culture and lowest dividend yields among developed markets -- have outperformed global peers for decades," they wrote.

"So does a near-record low dividend yield matter? Not while companies are flush with cash and happy to repurchase their own stock."

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.