Differentiated earners set for more durable gains in US insurance

Published 17/11/2025, 19:22
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Insurance companies that delivered clearly differentiated results, like Equitable, MetLife, Voya, Lincoln, Arch, RenaissanceRe, Aon and Ryan Specialty, are best placed for more durable share-price performance into 2026.

As cycle tailwinds fade and competition intensifies, investors are rewarding earnings quality over sheer beats, according to Morgan Stanley.

Life earnings were broadly stronger than share-price reactions implied. Fee income exceeded already high expectations on the back of rising AUM, underwriting held firm and spread income, despite ongoing compression, remained manageable as insurers diversified yield sources and benefited from strong annuity demand.

Equitable and MetLife delivered consistent results across fee, group and international businesses. Voya and Lincoln continued to show improvement in group benefits and annuities, supporting their turnaround narratives.

Globe Life also posted differentiated performance, aided by assumption updates and an undemanding valuation.

Whereas Corebridge was downgraded. It has exposure to rate cuts and fewer catalysts post its annuities reinsurance deal making earnings less resilient.

In P&C, the standout performers were Arch and RenaissanceRe in reinsurance and Allstate among primary carriers. While combined ratios benefited from benign catastrophe losses, growth slowed sharply amid competitive pricing in personal lines and commercial property.

That shift has made underwriting discipline, not premium expansion, which is the key differentiator.

Brokers Aon and Ryan Specialty also beat peers on growth despite margin pressure, reinforcing the importance of execution as the cycle softens.

With valuations reasonable and buybacks set to rise in 4Q25, insurers delivering repeatable, high-quality earnings look best placed to sustain outperformance as both the life and P&C cycles become more discriminating.

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