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The U.S. dollar is experiencing a mild "safe haven" bid due to ongoing Iran-Israel tensions, according to a new analysis from Macquarie Group (OTC:MQBKY). The financial services firm notes this temporary strength masks underlying conditions that have been driving investors away from the currency.
Macquarie Global FX & Rates Strategist Thierry Wizman points to several factors working against the dollar’s long-term outlook, including the likelihood of new "strategic" U.S. tariffs on sectors such as pharmaceuticals. The analysis also highlights that economic growth in other regions is no longer deteriorating compared to the United States.
The Japanese yen faces its own challenges as uncertainty around U.S. import tariffs has helped delay a rate hike from Japan’s central bank. Despite this delay, Macquarie projects the USD/JPY exchange rate will decline to just below 140 by year-end, driven by general dollar weakness and an anticipated Bank of Japan rate increase.
Macquarie suggests the dollar would likely be declining more significantly if not for the current Middle East conflict. The firm cites unfavorable developments regarding U.S. import tariffs as a key factor in this assessment.
Economic data from countries outside the United States, while showing weakness, does not indicate further deterioration relative to U.S. performance, according to the analysis. This relative stability in global economic conditions represents another headwind for the dollar’s strength.
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