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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Embraer S.A. to ’BBB’ from ’BBB-’ with a stable outlook, citing the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer’s strengthened business position.
The rating agency noted that Embraer has consistently evolved in recent years, supported by increases in its backlog and higher deliveries across all segments, along with a gradual normalization of the supply chain.
Embraer ended the second quarter of 2025 with a record backlog of $29.7 billion, 40% higher than the same period last year. In the first half of 2025, the company delivered 91 aircraft, including 26 commercial jets, 61 executive jets, and four defense aircraft, representing a 26% increase compared to the 72 aircraft delivered in the first six months of 2024.
S&P now views Embraer as a well-diversified company with robust performance across all operating segments and an improved revenue mix compared to pre-pandemic levels. While Embraer’s scale is smaller than competitors like Boeing, Airbus, and Bombardier, S&P assesses its business diversification as stronger than Bombardier’s, which focuses more on medium-to-large cabin business jets.
The rating agency forecasts a consolidated EBITDA margin of 10%-11% for Embraer over the next few years, reflecting gradual improvements at the company level, combined with negative EBITDA contribution from Eve’s operations, projected at around $100 million annually for at least the next two years.
Regarding the 50% total tariffs imposed on Brazilian products exports to the U.S., S&P noted that Embraer’s strategic relevance to U.S. airlines and the broader U.S. market resulted in the exclusion of aircraft and aircraft parts from the proposed 40% additional tariff. The agency anticipates a limited impact on margins and credit metrics, estimating a $35-$40 million annual reduction in EBITDA, representing approximately 0.5 percentage points of EBITDA margin.
Embraer’s liquidity remains robust, supported by a strong cash position and low leverage. S&P expects the company to generate solid operating cash flows of approximately $700 million per year over the next few years. Capital expenditures are projected to increase to $550-650 million in the coming years, with about $200 million allocated to Eve for the development of its electrical vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.
Earlier this year, Embraer extended its debt maturity profile to approximately six years through the issuance of $650 million in 10-year notes used to repay shorter-term debt. S&P estimates net debt to EBITDA to consistently remain below 1x, even factoring in approximately $150 million in annual incremental debt at Eve.
The stable outlook reflects S&P’s expectation that Embraer will maintain a solid backlog with increasing firm orders while speeding up deliveries, supporting revenue growth in the coming years.
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