Raytheon awarded $71 million in Navy contracts for missile systems
Investing.com - RBC Capital Markets raised its price target for Enphase Energy (NASDAQ:ENPH) to $33 from $28 on Tuesday, while highlighting significant market share challenges for the solar energy company.
The investment firm believes the upcoming termination of 25D tax credits at the end of 2025 poses a substantial threat to Enphase’s U.S. market share, which is heavily weighted toward non-third-party owned (TPO) systems.
These systems will be at an economic disadvantage once the credits expire, potentially shifting more customers toward TPO lease/PPA providers where Enphase holds only 25-30% market share compared to over 50% in the non-TPO segment.
RBC adjusted its estimates upward to reflect the final terms of the Ownership-Based Business Bonus (OBBB) that maintains Investment Tax Credit ( ITC (NSE:ITC)) benefits, which the firm had previously assumed would be disqualified.
Despite this adjustment, RBC’s 2026 and beyond forecasts remain significantly below consensus expectations, with 2026 revenue projected at $1.2 billion (16.7% year-over-year decline) compared to the consensus estimate of $1.5 billion.
The firm notes that Enphase continues to lose market share ahead of its next-generation battery offering and meter collar solution launch, with Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) Powerwall 3 gaining traction.
RBC’s installer survey data indicates a growing preference for Tesla products, a trend they believe has only strengthened year-to-date.
While Enphase’s premium product positioning has historically appealed to non-TPO customers due to its reputation for quality, reliability, and monitoring capabilities, RBC suggests this business model may not be well-positioned for the shifting demand dynamics expected after the 25D termination, as price could become a more significant factor for TPO providers.
This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.