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Investing.com -- Euronext (EPA:ENX) shares have been downgraded to “neutral” from “overweight,” by analysts at J.P. Morgan following a sharp rally that has seen the stock rise about 80% since the start of 2024, including a 35% gain year-to-date, in a note dated Monday.
The analysts noted that the stock is now trading at an all-time high multiple of 20x estimated earnings for fiscal year 2026, reflecting elevated expectations and valuation.
The downgrade follows Euronext’s first-quarter results and J.P. Morgan’s updated financial model, which includes an estimated 2% reduction in earnings per share for 2025 through 2027. The price target remains unchanged at €143.
In the revised outlook, J.P. Morgan raised its revenue estimates by about 1% over the 2025–27 period.
The increase is largely driven by strength in Security Services and fixed income, currencies and commodities (FICC), as well as the inclusion of Admincontrol under Corporate Solutions.
However, this was partially offset by a high single-digit cut to expected revenue from equity markets, due to an anticipated decline in volatility.
The net impact of these changes leaves adjusted EBITDA estimates unchanged. Earnings per share forecasts saw a low single-digit decline, primarily due to higher net financing expenses and increased minority interests, in line with the company’s guidance.
J.P. Morgan acknowledged the company’s ongoing integration efforts and its push to unlock synergies, along with long-term growth prospects including the migration of settlement services, increased clearing revenue, and structural growth at MTS.
Potential benefits from the European Commission’s Savings and Investments Union proposals were also mentioned, though analysts noted these may take time to be fully realized.
While J.P. Morgan still views Euronext’s diversified business mix and growth initiatives positively, analysts believe these strengths are now adequately reflected in the share price.
As a result, they have adopted a more cautious stance, pausing on further upside potential.
In comparison, J.P. Morgan continues to favor London Stock Exchange Group (LON:LSEG), citing its stronger secular growth drivers, higher cash flow generation, and more attractive valuation relative to its data-focused peers.