Europe outperforms U.S. in October as UK, France and Spain lift returns: Barclays

Investing.com -- European stocks outperformed their U.S. counterparts in October, led by gains in the UK, France and Spain, according to Barclays in a note dated Monday. 

The brokerage said resilient third-quarter earnings and renewed investor demand helped lift European returns despite global volatility.

Barclays analysts said that “EU equities outperformed US though driven mainly by UK, France and Spain,” while Germany “continued to struggle as investor fatigue on the stimulus delivery, AI worries for SAP and poor Auto sector earnings hit the region.” 

The brokerage noted that the UK benefited from “strong earnings momentum for the commodity space,” even as “the FTSE250 continued to lag as budget overhangs remain.”

Globally, equities “continued to climb the wall of worries making new highs again in October,” the London-based bank said. Concerns about “rising credit defaults in the US and renewed US-China trade spat pushed X-asset volatility higher,” but the setback was brief. 

The rebound was supported by “resilient Q3 earnings” and “AI tailwinds,” which “boosted them to the highs.” 

Bonds were largely flat as “yields recovered from the lows post a hawkish FOMC,” while gold remained higher on the month and oil was “volatile on Russian sanction news but was still down.”Bitcoin finished October as “the biggest underperformer.”

The regional breakdown showed emerging markets outperforming developed markets, aided by a “strong rally in Korean equities.” Within developed markets, Japan led gains on “the surprise choice of Takaichi as PM,” which weakened the yen and “drove equities higher.” 

Europe followed closely behind, buoyed by improved sentiment and fund flows. Barclays said, “Equity inflows picked up in October,” with “Europe [seeing] improved demand with US investors turning net buyers of the region.”

Sector performance reflected the ongoing dominance of technology. Barclays wrote that “Global sector leadership was led by the Tech complex,” supported by “AI/Big Tech capex and earnings momentum.” 

Utilities and healthcare also advanced, the latter “helped by easing FX headwinds and drug pricing concerns” in European pharmaceutical companies. Financials saw profit-taking “despite strong results,” while energy and commodities “lagged mainly because of US names underperforming.”

Factor trends diverged between the two major markets. In the U.S., “Growth/Quality keeps outperforming,” aided by easier financial conditions and artificial intelligence optimism.

In contrast, “Value continues to outperform” in Europe, though Barclays noted that “Growth/Quality performance picked up in October.” Small-cap stocks underperformed, “mainly in the US on credit concerns,” while “Low vol lagged amid risk-on markets.”

Barclays described October as a period of renewed momentum for European markets, where solid earnings and external inflows helped offset macro headwinds. 

“Global equities made new highs despite renewed tariff/geopolitical noise and US credit quality concerns pushing up x-asset vol,” Barclays said.