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Investing.com -- Expectations for higher inflation may be helping to fuel the recent climb in U.S. equities, according to market strategists.
Brokerage RBC Capital Markets believes that the latest moves in gold and certain sector moves after Jackson Hole suggest investors are positioning for upward inflation pressures.
The Energy sector has outperformed while defensive sectors such as Staples and Health Care lagged—patterns consistent with periods when inflation indicators move higher.
“Anticipation of upward inflation pressures may be contributing to the grind higher in the U.S. equity market that has been seen in recent weeks,” the strategists led by Lori Calvasina wrote in a Friday report.
The team pointed to historical data showing that U.S. household allocations to equities have often moved in line with inflation trends since the mid-1990s.
Although that relationship has broken down in recent years, with equity stakes hitting highs despite falling inflation, RBC noted that allocations are already at record levels, raising the possibility that some of the inflation trade may have been discounted.
Strategists also noted trends showing alignment over time between the ISM prices paid index—viewed as a leading signal for core goods inflation—and equity performance in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000.
They added that in the post-GFC period this gauge has been “fairly well aligned” with stock performance, suggesting that equities may be rising in part because market participants are putting on inflation trades.
At the same time, RBC cautioned that inflation dynamics for equities remain complicated, flagging “an inverse correlation between the trailing S&P 500 P/E and CPI trends over time.”