FCAS program in jeopardy? Jefferies flags high probability of cancellation

Published 22/09/2025, 09:06
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Germany is reportedly weighing how to advance its next-generation fighter jet program without France, a development analysts warn could spell the end of the Future Combat Air System (FCAS).

According to Bloomberg, Berlin is exploring scenarios if Dassault Aviation (EPA:AM) insists on keeping a controlling role. Options on the table include replacing France with new partners, such as the U.K. or Sweden, or proceeding jointly with Spain while excluding Paris.

Britain is already tied to the rival Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), which includes BAE Systems (LON:BAES) and Italy’s Leonardo (BIT:LDOF), making its participation in FCAS less likely. Efforts to resolve the impasse could also be complicated by France’s domestic political challenges.

In recent weeks, discussions in Berlin have focused on fallback options if Dassault maintains its demand for an 80% share of FCAS by year-end, according to the report.

German Chancellor Friederich Merz discussed the matter with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez last week, calling for the program to move forward with urgency.

Both leaders said they “want a solution as soon as possible” but that “things cannot continue as they are now”.

The timing is critical. At the DSEI defense show, officials noted that Germany’s window to join the rival GCAP as a core partner is closing, with design work already well advanced. Manufacturing collaborations may still be possible, but full design involvement appears unlikely.

“With the most recent announcement, we see a high probability of the FCAS program being scrapped,” Jefferies analyst Chloe Lemarie said in a Monday note.

If FCAS collapses, France could rely on upgrades to its Rafale fleet to bridge the gap until sixth-generation aircraft are available.

For Germany, options are murkier given the limited possibility of joining GCAP.

Lemarie pointed out that cancellation would carry different consequences for industry players. Dassault Aviation, Thales (EPA:TCFP), and Safran (EPA:SAF) could see a clearer path to a national program, while German-linked firms such as Hensoldt (ETR:HAGG), MTU Aero Engines (ETR:MTXGn), and Airbus (EPA:AIR) face more uncertainty.

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