Gold prices higher, remain near record highs on rate cut bets
Investing.com -- New York Federal Reserve President John Williams indicated on Thursday that a gradual reduction in short-term interest rates would be appropriate over time if the economy follows his current forecast.
Williams described the current monetary policy as "modestly restrictive" and "appropriate" for the present economic conditions during his speech at the Economic Club of New York.
"If progress on our dual-mandate goals continues as in my baseline forecast, I anticipate it will become appropriate to move interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time," Williams stated.
The Fed official noted that the central bank faces a balancing act between ensuring that President Donald Trump’s tariffs don’t cause long-term inflation while also preventing interest rates from being so high that they damage the job market.
Williams observed that economic growth has slowed due to trade and policy uncertainties, while the labor market has cooled but remains balanced. He projected GDP growth between 1.25% and 1.50% for 2025, with unemployment rising from the current 4.2% to 4.5% in 2026.
On inflation, Williams said tariffs are clearly pushing prices upward and will likely increase price pressures by 1.0% to 1.5% this year. He expects the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index to be between 3% and 3.25% in 2025, before declining to 2.5% next year and returning to the 2% target by 2027.
"Fortunately, I am not seeing signs of amplification or second-round effects of tariffs on broader inflation trends," Williams added.
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