Bullish indicating open at $55-$60, IPO prices at $37
Investing.com -- Ferrari (BIT:RACE) shares jumped more than 4% in Milan on Wednesday following the luxury carmaker’s pre-close analyst call ahead of second-quarter results, where management reiterated its view that the first half (H1) of 2025 will be stronger than the second (H2).
The main driver of this split remains the Daytona SP3, as deliveries decline. Having shipped 77 units in Q1, the remaining 100 will be allocated across Q2 and Q3, suggesting a step-down in contribution.
At the same time, new models like the SF90XX and 12Cilindri are ramping up and are expected to offset some of the Daytona slowdown.
The company’s U.S.-listed shares also climbed around 2% in premarket trading.
Ferrari expects margins in Q2 to be broadly in line with Q1, with management guiding for similar EBIT and EBITDA percentages.
After the call, RBC Capital Markets analysts said they believe Q1 2025 will likely remain Ferrari’s strongest EBITDA quarter of the year.
The team views the upcoming October 9 investor event as a key catalyst, expecting updates to the company’s EV strategy—possibly shifting from the 40/40/20 powertrain mix toward greater internal combustion engine exposure by 2030.
They also anticipate Ferrari will present a new 3–5 year outlook focused on price and mix improvements, with less emphasis on volume growth.
“Overall, the messaging is consistent with what management has been saying all year,” RBC analysts said.
According to Bernstein analysts, the quarter will benefit from positive mix effects due to newer models but be weighed down by lower Daytona volumes.
Foreign exchange (FX) is likely to be a headwind, though the automaker “substantively uses hedges to offset” the impact, RBC analysts noted.
“Further, management indicated tariff impacts will be negligible in Q2/25,” they added.
Despite consensus figures implying a potential guidance raise, management did not indicate any imminent changes to the full-year target of EBITDA above €2.68 billion.
Analysts pointed out that the H2/25 implied run-rate is around 10% below H1, suggesting a conservative baseline.
“While the guidance is a floor, we could envision a scenario where mgmt does raise the guidance,” RBC’s Tom Narayan and Piral Dadhania wrote.
Free cash flow (FCF) is set to decline quarter-on-quarter, in part due to high F80 prepayments in Q1 and elevated tax payments in Q2. Visible Alpha sees Q2 FCF at €226 million, down from €623 million in the previous quarter.
Residual values were another area of focus. Ferrari said values globally remain strong, with stabilization particularly noted in the U.K. market after reduced allocation and commercial actions.
“We are now entering a more normalized pattern,” Bernstein analysts said, with range models depreciating and limited series vehicles appreciating.
Ferrari declined to comment on media reports about a delay in its second battery-electric vehicle, which was initially planned for 2026. The company is expected to address this topic during the Q2 results presentation on July 31.