Fitch revises outlook for Tesla Auto Lease Trust 2024-A notes

Published 04/03/2025, 23:38
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has confirmed the ratings for the class A and B notes of Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Auto Lease Trust (TALT) 2024-A, with a Stable Outlook for the class A notes and a Positive Outlook for the class B notes, as announced on Tuesday, March 4, 2025.

The confirmation is based on available credit enhancement (CE), cumulative net losses, and residual value (RV) performance to date. Both cumulative net losses and residual value performance are within Fitch’s initial rating case proxies and hard credit enhancement for all outstanding notes has grown since the close.

The Stable Outlook for the ’AAAsf’-rated notes is due to the expectation that loss coverage will continue to support their current ratings as the transactions amortize. The Positive Outlook for the class B notes reflects the possibility of an upgrade in the next one to two years due to increasing hard CE for all classes of notes and conservative assumptions mitigating potential volatility.

As of the February 2024 distribution date, 61+ days delinquencies of TALT 2024-A was 0.34%, while cumulative net credit losses were 0.19%, below the initial rating case credit loss proxy of 1.00%. Residual performance has recorded cumulative losses of 7.04% on $14.09 million in returns, also below Fitch’s initial ’BBsf’ rating case RV loss proxy of 15.00%. These higher losses are a result of softening demand for electric vehicles, prior price reductions by Tesla on new vehicles, and the impact from increased turn-in rates, resulting in lower RV realizations. CE has increased to 29.92% and 20.66% from 23.50% and 16.50% for the class A and B notes, respectively, since close.

Based on transaction-specific performance to date, Fitch revised the lifetime rating case CNL proxy from 1.00% to 0.80% for 2024-A. Residual losses for the transaction have increased, reaching 7.04%, though remain within Fitch’s expectations. Therefore, Fitch maintained the ’BBsf’ rating case RV loss proxy of 15.00% for 2024-A. Fitch applied a ’AAAsf’ and ’AA+sf’ RV haircut of 21.00% and 18.40%, respectively, which are consistent with values at close.

Under Fitch’s stressed cash flow assumptions, loss coverage levels for the notes are in excess of their rating-specific stressed RV loss hurdles, commensurate with the ’AAAsf’ and ’AA+sf’ rating categories for the respective notes.

Factors that could lead to a downgrade include unanticipated increases in the frequency of defaults or deterioration in vehicle values, which could produce loss levels higher than the current expectations and impact available loss coverage. Lower loss coverage could impact ratings and Outlooks, depending on the extent of the decline in coverage.

On the other hand, factors that could lead to an upgrade include stable to improved asset performance driven by stable delinquencies and defaults, which would lead to increasing CE levels and consideration for potential upgrades. For notes that are rated ’AAAsf’, up stresses were not considered. However, if RV losses are 20% less than the projected ’BB’ rating case RV loss proxy, the ratings for the subordinate notes could be upgraded by up to one rating category.

The transaction, with a pool of 100% electric vehicles, has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) for Energy Management of ’3’ (low impact on credit), which is higher than the baseline RS of ’2’ (no impact) for this general issue in the North American auto sector. This transaction also has an ESG RS for Labor Relations and Practices of ’3’ (low impact on credit), which is higher than the baseline RS of ’2’ (no impact) for the general North American auto sector.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.