FOREX-Dollar bounce loses steam; AstraZeneca worries dent sterling

Published 09/04/2021, 06:53
Updated 09/04/2021, 06:54
© Reuters.
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* Euro, yen poised for weekly rises >1%
* Sterling suffers as AstraZeneca (NASDAQ:AZN) vaccine falters
* Graphic: World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, April 9 (Reuters) - The dollar advanced slightly
on Friday but was headed for its softest week of the year as
strong data in Europe, surprisingly weak U.S. jobs figures and a
determinedly accommodative Federal Reserve have prompted
investors to trim bets on the greenback.
The euro and yen are also poised for their largest weekly
percentage gains in four and five months, respectively, while
the dollar index =USD , which has fallen 0.9% this week, is
parked near a two-week low at 92.171.
"In short, the energy has gone out of the dollar's
first-quarter rebound, just as it has gone out of the bond
sell-off," said Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe
Generale.
In the Asia session, the euro EUR= eased 0.1% but held
above its 200-day moving average at $1.1900, while the yen
JPY= pushed through its 20-day moving average to hold at
109.32 per dollar. Both currencies have gained 1.3% against the
dollar so far this week.
The euro has also risen more than 2% against the pound
EURGBP= this week, bouncing from a one-year low of 84.70 pence
on Monday to touch 86.81 pence, its highest since February, amid
growing concerns about Britain's reliance on AstraZeneca's
vaccine. Sterling GBP= was an outlier against the dollar this
week and has so far fallen 0.7% to sit at $1.3723.
The vaccine - developed with Oxford University and
considered a frontrunner in the global inoculation race - has
been plagued by safety concerns and supply problems. Australia
and the Philippines have limited use of the shot, the African
Union dropped plans to buy it and Hong Kong has delayed it.

The Australian and New Zealand dollars meandered in the top
half of ranges that have held them for about two weeks. AUD/
A slightly cautious mood in equity markets and a warning
from Australia's central bank of excessive lending risk put a
dampener on the Aussie AUD=D3 , which slipped about 0.4% to
$0.7623 to put it on track for a 0.4% weekly gain. The kiwi
NZD=D3 dipped 0.3% to $0.7036 and is up 0.3% on the week.

DOLLAR EBBS
The pause in the dollar's rally follows a solid rebound from
what had been the greenback's softest year since 2017. Rising
Treasury yields and a growing consensus that the U.S. economy
can lead the world out of the pandemic lifted the dollar index
3.6% last quarter, its best quarter in nearly three years.
However after a run of strong data, Thursday figures showed
U.S. unemployment claims unexpectedly rose. Fed speakers also again vowed to keep monetary policy super
easy. Chair Jerome Powell said policy wouldn't shift until there
was at least a monthslong string of good data, while board
member James Bullard said the Fed should not even discuss
changes until it is clear the pandemic is over. A crucial test looms in coming weeks and months, according
to Indosuez' head of capital markets in Asia, Davis Hall, as
markets and the Fed contend with higher inflation outcomes and
possibly a European recovery gathering steam.
European factory gate price rises, meanwhile, accelerated on
the heels of surprisingly strong business activity growth.
"We are very skeptical that this is going to remain a
sustainable dollar rebound," Hall said on the phone from Hong
Kong.
"Dollar/yen can move higher and dollar/Swiss can move
higher, because of interest-rate differentials, but if U.S.
growth is strong, it's not sure that it's going to benefit the
dollar provided that Europe can start their own vaccination
success and momentum - that's the key.
"We're allowing for the dollar to rally, but we're going to
use dollar-rebound strength to diversify away from dollar
exposure, and we like Asian currencies."

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