FOREX-Dollar holds gains as pandemic fears drive U.S. bond rally

Published 27/02/2020, 01:51
Updated 27/02/2020, 01:54
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar holds gains as pandemic fears drive U.S. bond rally

* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

* Interactive graphic tracking global spread of coronavirus:

https://tmsnrt.rs/3aIRuz7 in an external browser

* Dollar benefits as investors flock to Treasuries

* Virus now spreading more quickly outside of China

* Risk aversion to remain a driver of currency markets

By Stanley White

TOKYO, Feb 27 (Reuters) - The dollar held gains against the

yen on Thursday as growing fears that a coronavirus outbreak is

turning into a pandemic boosted demand for the safety of U.S.

Treasuries.

The dollar also traded near a three-month high versus the

pound due to worries Britain's trade talks with the European

Union were stalling and dashed expectations for big fiscal

spending.

The euro, however, held up against the greenback's wider

advance as traders eyed reports that Germany's finance ministry

is considering easing fiscal spending restrictions to boost its

flagging economy.

Most currencies were locked in narrow ranges as traders

nervously monitor the global spread of the coronavirus that

emerged in China late last year.

The virus is now spreading faster outside of China than

within, stoking fears that the economic impact of travel curbs,

supply chain disruptions, and falling demand might be far

greater than previously anticipated.

"There was a question whether you should buy the dollar or

the yen as a safe haven, but the moves in Treasuries show that

more investors are choosing the dollar," said Takuya Kanda,

general manager of the research department at Gaitame.com

Research Institute in Tokyo.

"Sentiment suggests the dollar's downside is limited against

the yen. This also boost the dollar against other currencies."

The dollar was quoted at 110.35 yen JPY=EBS on Thursday in

Asia, following a 0.2% gain in the previous session.

The greenback has pulled back from a 10-month high of 112.23

yen reached on Feb. 20 but still remains above support levels,

suggesting further declines could be limited, some traders say.

By far the biggest boost for the dollar has been a massive

rally in U.S. Treasuries as worries about the virus triggered

demand for the safety of government debt.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields US10YT=RR fell to a

record low for the second consecutive day on Thursday, as

traders adjusted portfolios to take account of growing risks to

growth.

Investors in the dollar are also focused on the release of

U.S. durable goods orders and gross domestic product data later

on Thursday, which could test its safe-haven status if the

numbers disappoint expectations.

Efforts to contain the outbreak have paralysed large swathes

of China's economy, which are only slowly returning to normal.

There are worries that other countries could face the same

problem as the virus spreads around the world.

Some traders warn that the safe-haven status assigned to

U.S. assets is not guaranteed, and market sentiment could

quickly turn against the greenback if coronavirus infections

started rising rapidly in the United States.

The pound GBP=D3 traded at $1.2900 on Thursday, close to a

three-month low of $1.2849. Sterling also traded at 84.33 pence

per euro EURGBP=D3 , close to a two-week low.

The new round of talks between Britain and the EU is

scheduled to start on Monday, but comments from both sides

suggest their views on the scope of a fee-trade agreement differ

greatly. In addition, some investors are unwinding long positions in

cable as they scale back expectations for an expansionary fiscal

policy.

The euro EUR=D3 held steady at $1.0885 as traders pondered

how European officials would respond to a weakening economic

outlook.

Germany's government is considering suspending strict rules

on the amount of debt it can raise, the finance ministry said on

Wednesday, as it faces growing pressure to kick-start a sluggish

economy by spending more.

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