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Investing.com -- Galderma ’s (SIX:GALD) blockbuster-in-waiting Nemluvio has outpaced earlier expectations, setting the stage for stronger earnings momentum, according to Jefferies.
Analysts raised their 2025 sales estimate for the drug to $420 million, about 10% ahead of consensus, after a strong second-quarter performance.
Nearly $390 million of that is expected from the U.S. market, supported by higher patient uptake and a greater proportion of patients prescribed two pens in the second half of the year.
Jefferies said Nemluvio should reach a blockbuster run rate, defined as $250 million in quarterly sales, by the third quarter of 2026, a full year earlier than management’s guidance and ahead of consensus expectations of the second quarter of 2027.
The faster trajectory is being driven by broader use across atopic dermatitis and prurigo nodularis, with physicians increasingly prescribing the drug as a first-line therapy. Prescription data also suggest stronger-than-expected patient retention.
The earlier-than-expected performance has prompted Jefferies to lift its price target for Galderma shares by 43% to CHF160, from CHF112, and reiterate a “buy” rating.
The brokerage sees Nemluvio’s higher profitability boosting group margins, with the potential for about 575 basis points of expansion between 2023 and 2027.
That is ahead of management’s 300–500 basis point target and consensus estimates of 505 basis points. Analysts project Galderma’s EBITDA to rise from $1.24 billion in 2025 to $2.12 billion in 2027.
Shares of Galderma closed at CHF132 in the prior trading session, valuing the company at CHF31.3 billion ($38.9 billion).
At Jefferies’ revised price target, the stock would trade about 21% higher. The brokerage cited Nemluvio’s launch momentum and improved profitability as key drivers of further upside, despite softness in the U.S. injectable aesthetics market.