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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks near record highs, pound wavers before election result

Published 12/12/2019, 14:30
Updated 12/12/2019, 14:36
© Reuters.  GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks near record highs, pound wavers before election result
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* Pound traders lock in profits before British election

result

* Trump to meet advisers on China tariffs

* Dovish Fed message sees dollar touch lowest since August

* Treasury yields up in Asia, Europe

* No change from ECB at Christine Lagarde's first meeting

* Turkey and Ukraine both slash interest rates by 200 bps

* Wall Street expected to open flat to slightly lower

By Marc Jones

LONDON, Dec 12 (Reuters) - World shares took another run at

record highs on Thursday, as the right messages from the U.S.

Federal Reserve set traders up for a packed day of central bank

meetings and a Brexit-defining election in Britain.

The Fed kept U.S. interest rates unchanged, as expected, but

it was a message that it would take an unexpected and

"persistent" rise in inflation to lift them again that cheered

the bulls and pushed the dollar to its lowest since August.

Asian shares rallied almost 1% overnight, despite reports

Washington will press on with new China tariffs. European

trading left MSCI's broadest world share index .MIWD00000PUS

just 0.1% shy of its 2018 record high.

"This is quite a strong signal that current interest rates

will remain at these low levels for the time being," Mirabaud's

chief economist, Gero Jung, said of the Fed, the European

Central Bank and Switzerland's SNB which had also kept rates

steady.

"And we have a modest cyclical improvement in the economy,

so that is good for risk assets."

It was the start of a series of events over the next few

days likely to set the course of financial markets for months to

come.

Sterling weakened from its highest in more than two years

versus the euro and an eight-month high versus the dollar with

voting underway in an election that will determine whether

Britain exits the European Union next month.

Expectations are that the ruling Conservatives, led by Boris

Johnson, will gain a majority that allows his stalled Brexit

deal to be passed by a new parliament, but the latest polls have

shown the lead shrinking. Exit polls for Britain's election will begin around 2200

GMT, after voting closes. Whether there will be a clear winner

or another hung parliament is likely to emerge between 0400 GMT

and 0600 GMT. Following a 10% surge by the pound in the last few months,

traders are now hedging their bets. Peter Kinsella, Union

Bancaire Privée's global head of forex strategy, said a

Conservative majority remained his expectation, however.

"We think a move to levels of around $1.35 or even $1.37 is

entirely feasible," if there is a Conservative majority. With

another hung parliament "you are definitely back down to

$1.26-1.27."

The pound was last down 0.2% at $1.3170 GBP=D3 just off

its March highs and near a May 2017 peak against the euro at

84.49 pence EURGBP= .

THE NEW LAGARDE

The euro EUR=EBS held at $1.1135 as Christine Lagarde kept

the ECB's sub-zero interest rates steady at her first meeting as

president of the European Central Bank.

Her first post-meeting press conference was being closely

watched, especially with the bank also updating its economic

forecasts and due to make changes to its policy framework next

year. "The scope of the strategy review may not be finalised

before early 2020, but it should be centred on four main issues:

the definition of price stability and the inflation measures;

the side effects of unconventional policy measures; the internal

and external communication strategy; climate risks," said

Frederik Ducrozet at Pictet Wealth Management.

Switzerland's central bank also kept its policy ultra-loose

and reaffirmed that negative interest rates would remain central

to its plans. The Swiss franc was little changed. Turkey slashed its main rate 200 basis points to 12%.

Ukraine also cut its key rate 200 bps, to 13.5%. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to meet

top advisers on Thursday to discuss tariffs on nearly $160

billion of Chinese consumer goods that are scheduled to take

effect on Dec. 15, three sources told Reuters. Trump is expected to go ahead with the tariffs, a separate

source told Reuters, which could scuttle efforts to end a

17-month trade war between the world's two largest economies.

The dollar index .DXY against a basket of six major

currencies fell to a four-month low of 97.057, but spent most of

the European session regaining ground.

Treasury yields had also fallen in reaction to the Fed's

comments, but they recovered, too. Yields on the benchmark

10-year Treasury US10YT=RR reached 1.7966 before what was

expected to be subdued Wall Street opening. .N

In commodities, U.S. crude CLc1 edged up 0.4% to $59 a

barrel and global benchmark Brent LCOc1 rose 0.5% to $64 per

barrel. A report by OPEC released on Wednesday suggested that

oil markets are tighter than previously thought. Traders also watched as shares of newly floated Saudi state

oil company Saudi Aramco rose 4.5% 2222.SE and its valuation

touched $2 trillion, its debut on the Riyadh stock market on

Wednesday.

Sterling vs. odds of Conservative majority in 2019 election https://tmsnrt.rs/2YHhmpw

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