In a recent forecast, BMO Capital Markets has predicted the global market for innovative weight-loss drugs, such as Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO) A/S's Ozempic and Wegovy, to reach $100 billion by 2035. This projection follows an increase in patient recognition of the efficacy of these medications.
Evan David Seigerman, an analyst from BMO Capital Markets, noted late on Thursday that the revenue for these medications could reach $70 billion in the US alone. This prediction is in line with Wall Street's growing interest in weight-loss-related investments, spurred by a study on Novo Nordisk's Wegovy. The study found that Wegovy significantly reduced risks of heart attacks and strokes, leading to a substantial increase in Eli Lilly & Co (NYSE:LLY).'s stock value. As a result, Eli Lilly & Co. currently holds the position of the best-performing pharmaceutical stock in the S&P 500 this year.
Seigerman anticipates that Eli Lilly will continue to be a significant player in the US market throughout the 2030s. He highlighted that Lilly’s Mounjaro (tirzepatide), which is already approved for diabetes, could become a pillar for weight-loss treatments into the late 2030s, assuming it gains approval for obesity treatment by year-end.
The analyst further pointed out forthcoming changes in the US payer and reimbursement landscape. He expects support from various sectors including medicine, politics, regulation, and culture for comprehensive access to obesity therapeutics.
However, this forecast contrasts with earlier predictions from Morgan Stanley analysts in August. They estimated that the global obesity market would reach $77 billion by 2030, marking an increase from their previous forecast of $54 billion.
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