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Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs upgraded Brazilian brokerage XP (NASDAQ:XP) Inc to “Buy” from “Neutral” saying the company has a stronger operating leverage, its revenue mix, and potential upside incase interest rates fall faster than expected.
The bank raised its price target for XP to $23 and said the firm’s reduced reliance on equity market performance, along with steady fixed income revenue growth, puts it in a favorable position for consistent low double-digit revenue growth.
“XP has become less dependent on a further market recovery,” Goldman wrote, pointing to a shift in its revenue composition.
Fixed income revenues overtook equities as XP’s largest source in the first quarter, with equity revenues down to 21% from over 40% in 2021. In a bull case scenario, revenue could grow 21% in 2026 versus a base case of 11%, the bank said.
Goldman also highlighted XP’s strong capital position, which should support further buybacks and dividends. It projects 16% earnings growth in 2026 under its base case.
Whereas, the brokerage downgraded exchange operator B3 SA to “Neutral” from “Buy”, saying limited room for further margin expansion and potential overhang from competition and lawsuits cap upside.
B3’s EBITDA margin already ranks among the highest globally at 70%, and its shares are trading at a steep premium to Brazil’s Ibovespa index.
Further upside from here could be more dependent on a sustained equity market recovery, according to Goldman analysts.
Goldman maintained its “Buy” rating on BTG Pactual, calling it the most resilient earnings story in the group.
The brokerage sees the overall environment improving for capital markets, but believes XP offers better risk-reward relative to peers.