Goldman’s European Conviction List: Directors’ Cut. Here’s the October 2025 update

Published 01/10/2025, 11:30
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Investing.com -- Goldman Sachs released its October update to the European Conviction List – Directors’ Cut, adding Airbus, Deutsche Telekom, Vonovia and Informa while removing Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (EPA:URW).

Airbus was added as supply chain constraints on the A320 begin to ease, according to analyst Sam Burgess.

Combined with fixed cost absorption from the ramp-up of the A350, Goldman expects more than 20% EBIT CAGR between 2024 and 2028.

The bank also pointed to “optionality on meaningful cash returns with the highest free cash flow (FCF) yield amongst its peers.”

For Deutsche Telekom, analyst Andrew Lee expects strong results at T-Mobile U.S. despite market concerns. Price increases are driving revenue growth and should help lift the group’s return on invested capital by about 50% to 11% over the next four years.

Lee is also ahead of consensus on the company’s 2026 buyback forecasts.

“Potential consolidation in Germany could add further upside,” Goldman added.

Vonovia’s inclusion comes as the bank forecasts stronger rental growth than management guidance, driven by inflation-linked pricing with a six-year lag and modernization capex.

Analyst Jonathan Kownator sees medium-term rental growth of about 5.5% versus guidance of more than 4%, while non-rental income is set to grow into a more significant contributor.

He added that the balance sheet remains under control despite recent macro volatility.

Informa rounds out the new additions, with analyst James Tate forecasting organic growth above consensus for 2026, about 160 basis points higher.

Growth in B2B markets, expansion in Dubai and improving conditions in China are underpinning the outlook.

Tate also flagged potential upside from AI-related deals for Taylor & Francis, while strong free cash flow allows for “c14% of the market cap being returned through buybacks while delevering.”

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