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Investing.com -- Google’s parent Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL) could see its shares swing by as much as 10% in either direction depending on the outcome of an imminent Department of Justice ruling on its search monopoly case, BMO Capital analysts said.
The U.S. District Court has already found Google guilty of “illegally maintaining its search monopoly in general search and search text advertising via exclusionary default agreements,” according to BMO Capital.
Judge Amit Mehta’s decision on remedies is said to be expected this month and “possibly even today, to clear the deck ahead of the new Ad-Tech trial starting shortly.”
BMO said the ruling could be significant but not extreme. “We believe that the final ruling from Judge Amit Mehta is poised to potentially impose significant but not Draconian changes to Google’s business,” the analysts wrote.
They added that the most likely outcome is “a comprehensive behavioral consent decree—not a structural breakup—imposing lasting constraints on Google’s distribution practices, data sharing, and competitive behavior, potentially including AI.”
The analysts believe Google will avoid being forced to divest Chrome or Android, but remedies “could directly impact core revenue streams and operating flexibility.”
BMO Capital cautioned that the bigger risk lies in the upcoming Ad-Tech antitrust case, which “presents a higher probability of a structural breakup, with a ruling on remedies expected after September 2025.”
Together, the two cases could put Google under “a decade of heightened regulatory oversight and fundamentally alter the competitive landscape for search and digital advertising.”
Shares could remain volatile, with BMO noting that “GOOGL shares could be positioned for an up to (+/-) 10% move depending on the announced remedies.”