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Investing.co -- Jefferies has upgraded Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) to a "buy" rating, citing early signs of improving demand in the Australian market, leading to better operating leverage and margin expansion.
The brokerage also noted that the stock is trading at a significant discount compared to JB Hi-Fi and Nick Scali, despite Harvey Norman’s history of delivering strong results when market conditions improve.
In a note dated Friday, Jefferies analysts said that Harvey Norman’s profit before tax (PBT), excluding property revaluations and post-AASB16 adjustments, came in at $316 million for the first half of fiscal 2025.
This marks a 9% year-on-year increase and is 1% ahead of Jefferies’ estimate of $313 million. The company also declared an interim dividend of 12 cents per share, slightly higher than Jefferies’ projection of 11 cents.
Harvey Norman’s Australian franchising division reported an EBIT-to-sales margin improvement of approximately 90 basis points, rising from 5.2% in the prior corresponding period to 6.1%. This was driven by operating leverage on 5.7% franchisee sales growth in the first half of the fiscal year.
Jefferies also noted that while Harvey Norman lagged behind JB Hi-Fi in January sales growth, its February performance was stronger, with total Australian sales rising 7.2%. However, the analysts cautioned that February is not a seasonally large month for sales.
The company’s UK expansion weighed on its overall performance, with startup costs of $6.6 million recorded for the half-year period.
Additionally, its equity investments delivered a loss of $1.9 million despite buoyant market conditions, which Jefferies estimated dragged group PBT down by around 4%.
Harvey Norman’s property portfolio, now valued at approximately $4.4 billion, remains a key asset, with Jefferies stating that it has historically provided a "share price floor."
The brokerage raised its price target for Harvey Norman to $5.85 from $4.75 per share, representing a 12% upside from current levels.
Shares of Harvey Norman closed 2.6% higher.