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Investing.com -- Shares of Harmony (JO:HARJ) Energy Income Trust (HEIT) surged over 20% on Monday following the announcement of a potential cash offer from Foresight Group.
The 84p-per-share proposal values the company at approximately £190.8 million, representing a 29% premium over its last closing price of 65.2p.
This development has led to renewed market interest in HEIT as the board assesses the offer against its ongoing portfolio sale process.
Jefferies analysts noted that the offer price represents a much higher valuation than the estimated return from HEIT’s asset sales.
The per-megawatt valuation under the proposed acquisition stands at around £811,000, far exceeding the estimated £400,000-£700,000 range expected under a portfolio sale based on construction costs, as the analysts.
The brokerage also flagged Foresight Group’s existing investments in UK battery storage, which could simplify due diligence and enhance the likelihood of a finalized deal.
Despite the sharp rise in HEIT’s stock price, questions remain about the company’s longer-term position, particularly as other firms in the battery storage sector trade at discounted valuations.
Peers such as Gresham House Energy Storage Fund and Gore Street Energy Storage Fund have also been trading at substantial discounts to net asset value, a factor that could drive broader industry consolidation.
The relatively low level of irrevocable commitments to the Foresight offer suggests the possibility of competing bids emerging.
HEIT’s trajectory in the coming weeks depends on whether Foresight formalizes its offer before the April 14 deadline.
If no firm bid materializes, or if alternative suitors fail to emerge, HEIT’s valuation could face renewed pressure. Market reaction will also be influenced by broader industry trends, including fluctuations in power prices, regulatory developments, and the financial health of other battery storage funds.
Jefferies currently maintains an "underperform" rating on HEIT, reflecting concerns over the company’s long-term growth prospects and the challenges associated with the battery storage market.
Factors such as declining ancillary service prices and narrowing intraday electricity spreads pose risks to HEIT’s revenue model, as per Jefferies. Additionally, delays in asset sales or construction could further impact its valuation.