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Investing.com -- Jefferies has downgraded HSBC Holdings Plc, the London-based global bank, to “hold” from “buy” rating, citing reduced upside after the removal of $8.5 billion of planned share buybacks from the third quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026.
The brokerage said the buyback curtailment significantly diminishes the appeal of HSBC’s investment case despite strong profitability forecasts.
Jefferies said the planned privatization of Hang Seng Bank, valued at $13.7bn, is expected to be EPS-neutral before synergies.
The deal includes a suspension of buybacks for three quarters, which offsets an otherwise 4% accretive impact to earnings.
While Jefferies described management’s rationale for the acquisition as sensible, it flagged the timing and capital allocation as potential concerns.
Revised estimates from Jefferies lifted HSBC’s 2025 and 2026 adjusted forecasts by 10% and 12%, respectively, reflecting higher non-interest income and improved operating expense control.
The cost of equity was reduced by 50 basis points to 11.0%, raising Jefferies’ price target to 1,120p from 960p. This implies an 11% upside, which Jefferies said does not support a Buy rating.
Jefferies noted HSBC’s projected 2027 return on tangible equity of 16.7% and a potential terminal TBV multiple increase from 1.4x to 1.6x, but said the absence of buybacks for three quarters reduces upside significantly.
Incorporating the $8.5 billion of foregone buybacks would have pushed valuation toward 1,200p, Jefferies said.
The brokerage underlined HSBC’s shareholder remuneration of $60 billion over 2025–2027, about 25% of its current market capitalization, as supportive of returns.
But without near-term buybacks, Jefferies said the risk/reward balance is asymmetric to the upside only in certain scenarios.