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Investing.com -- HSBC has upgraded Ferrari to Buy from Hold, citing a stronger growth outlook driven by mix enrichment, expanding personalisation, and efficiency gains. The bank raised its target price to €470 from €413.
Ferrari shares rose more than 3% in Milan trading.
HSBC analysts expect Ferrari to outline a new plan at its October capital markets day (CMD), projecting “double-digit earnings growth out to 2030.” They forecast earnings CAGR of 11% through the decade, with EBIT margins rising to 32% by 2027.
Near-term momentum will come from the launch of the F80 and 296 Speciale, while longer-term drivers include digitalisation and production ramp-up at the e-Factory.
The analysts believe that volume growth will likely remain modest, but scarcity should persist as demand from ultra-high-net-worth individuals continues to outpace supply.
This demand/supply imbalance, combined with higher-priced special series and a growing appetite for customisation, is expected to underpin both visibility and stability of earnings.
“Personalization has been the real big new contributor to our P&L,” Ferrari’s CFO said earlier this year, with HSBC highlighting scope for further gains once a new paint shop comes online in 2026.
The analysts also addressed investor concerns about residual values for Ferrari’s hybrid models.
While used prices for the SF90 and 296 had seen steep declines from pandemic-era peaks, values “appear to have stabilised more recently” and management actions are helping to maintain order momentum, a team led by Michael Tyndall noted.
They see these challenges as “manageable” and not a threat to the long-term investment case. HSBC also pointed to hybrid cost of ownership as an issue Ferrari may need to address, given high warranty costs and scheduled battery replacements.
On valuation, HSBC argues Ferrari’s premium is justified given its resilient earnings trajectory versus luxury peers, where profits are mostly flat. Consensus EPS for Ferrari has been revised sharply higher this year, while the bank’s 2026–27 estimates stand 7–18% above market forecasts.
“Stability, strong (and improving) margins, and a degree of uniqueness vs its peers in both auto and luxury all underpin our positive stance on the stock,” the note said.
The analysts also noted Ferrari’s relatively low exposure to China, which they see as an advantage compared with peers facing weaker demand in that market.
HSBC’s updated projections include 2026 EPS of €10.99 and 2027 EPS of €13.33, representing upgrades of 5% and 16% respectively from its previous estimates.
The bank also sees Ferrari delivering free cash flow of €9.5 billion between 2026 and 2030, supporting shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, with scope for a sizable uplift in value distribution.