iPhone sales likely surged in April on tariff panic buying – survey

Investing.com -- U.S. iPhone sales saw a sharp year-over-year spike in April, likely fueled by consumer fears over potential tariff-related price increases, according to KeyBanc Capital Markets.

The broker’s proprietary Key First Look Data (KFLD) recorded a 34% increase in iPhone sell-through compared to the same month last year, which had seen a 24% decline. Analysts attribute the surge to “panic buying ahead of concerns related to tariff-related price increases.”

Despite the strong year-over-year (y/y) figure, the month-over-month (m/m) data pointed to slightly weaker trends.

April domestic iPhone sales fell 4% from March, underperforming the five-year historical average of a 3% decline.

In-store sales dropped 6% m/m and rose 20% y/y, while online sales were down just 1% m/m but surged 52% y/y.

“This compares to March domestic iPhone sales of +12% m/m (vs. five-year historical average of +3% m/m) and +9% y/y,” KeyBanc noted.

KFLD also showed Apple’s overall hardware spend trends improved notably. Indexed spending in April fell just 2% m/m, significantly better than the three-year average decline of 16%, and rose 38% y/y, up from 17% in March.

“We believe the positive inflection is mainly the result of recent tariff threats on imports, which led to a pull-forward in iPhone demand, paired with new product introductions from March,” the analysts wrote.

Despite the strong y/y growth, KeyBanc noted a negative mix shift in iPhone sales. Carrier surveys showed softer demand for higher-end models like the iPhone 16 Pro and Pro Max, with inventories of these models rising.

“Sell-through for the iPhone 16 decreased m/m in April, slightly below store expectations and normal seasonal trends,” the firm said.

Base models saw increased demand, while the higher-priced iPhone SE4 continued to lag. Inventories for the higher-end Pro and Pro Max versions rose. This mix shift, analysts say, reflects “indirect impacts of tariffs and market uncertainties.”

Retailers responded with aggressive promotions. Verizon (NYSE:VZ) raised its maximum credit for the iPhone 16 Pro Max to $1,200, while T-Mobile US Inc (NASDAQ:TMUS) launched its first no trade-in promotion for the Pro model and offered credits up to $1,000 with trade-ins.

AT&T (NYSE:T) maintained its existing offers but relaxed some trade-in restrictions.

KeyBanc sees the results as negative for Apple’s supply chain, citing increased inventory levels and demand skewing toward lower-margin models.

“We view our April carrier survey and KFL results as negative for the Apple supply chain,” they noted, highlighting companies such as Arm Holdings ADR (NASDAQ:ARM), Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO), Cirrus Logic (NASDAQ:CRUS), Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM), Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO), and Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS).

KeyBanc remains Sector Weight on Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL), maintaining a cautious stance despite the recent tariff exemption on smartphones.

Analysts believe iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence have yet to spark a meaningful upgrade cycle and point to persistent risks including high 2026 growth expectations, muted upgrade rates, intensified competition in China, and legal challenges tied to Apple’s Services business.

With shares trading around 21x 2026 adjusted EBITDA, in line with the three-year average, the broker views the stock as “expensive” relative to its growth outlook.