Is OpenAI’s stock sale the latest evidence we’re in an AI bubble?

Published 03/10/2025, 15:48
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Investing.com -- The Sevens Report on Friday highlighted that the latest secondary stock sale by OpenAI, valuing the artificial intelligence company at around $500 billion, has revived debate over whether surging enthusiasm for the sector signals confidence or a looming bubble.

According to Sevens Research, the sale allowed employees to offload up to $10 billion of equity, but only $6.6 billion was ultimately offered. 

“That bodes well for OpenAI’s future outlook from within the company,” the note said, pointing to employee confidence that growth prospects remain strong. 

The analysts also noted that this was “not a new funding sale to raise capital for expansion but rather a liquidity event for employees,” reinforcing optimism that outside investors still see long-term opportunity after OpenAI’s first-half 2025 revenue already topped full-year 2024.

Yet the steep valuation also raises red flags, according to the firm. Sevens observed that the $500 billion figure equals “25X expected 2025 revenue of $20B,” a multiple that requires rapid growth to translate into profits. 

“Leadership will have to prove the ability to monetize growth into profitability sooner-than-later to justify such a rich valuation,” the analysts cautioned.

The firm highlighted risks including scalability of AI products, soaring training costs, and fierce competition from rivals such as Microsoft, Google, Meta and Anthropic.

While OpenAI has overtaken SpaceX as the most valuable private startup, Sevens argued that SpaceX benefits from “proven profitability channels and government contracts” that OpenAI lacks.

“The risk that we see the AI-narrative challenged in the weeks/months ahead is rising,” Sevens warned, noting that initial gains in AI-linked stocks like Nvidia faded intraday. 

They added that “the potential to spark a meaningful profit-taking pullback in tech and the broader equity market” is increasing.

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