JFrog stock rises as Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Overweight rating after strong Q2
Investing.com -- Jefferies has downgraded Mitie Group Plc (LON:MTO) plc to “hold” from “buy,” citing a shift in strategy following the acquisition of Marlowe that alters the investment outlook and reduces near-term upside potential, in a note dated Friday.
The brokerage said the stock’s 30% year-to-date gain and current valuation of 11x FY26 earnings per share place it near the top of its historical 8–12x P/E range, limiting further re-rating.
Analysts said the £1.7 billion facilities management company’s acquisition of Marlowe moves away from a previously favored investment case based on disciplined delivery through organic growth, share buybacks and bolt-on deals. The Marlowe transaction suspends the buyback and introduces financial trade-offs.
Jefferies characterized the Marlowe deal as having mixed financial metrics. It estimates the acquisition delivers 0% EPS accretion in FY26, rising to 3% in FY27 and 9% by FY28 with the inclusion of £30 million in expected cost synergies.
The FY26 post-tax return on invested capital is forecast at 6%, increasing to 8% in FY27 and 11% in FY28. Leverage is expected to reach 1.4x net debt to EBITDA in FY26, the upper limit of management’s 0.75–1.5x target range.
The analysts flagged concerns about Marlowe’s business model, describing it as a roll-up with a weak free cash flow track record.
Jefferies also noted Mitie’s EBITA-to-free cash flow conversion declined to 61% in FY25 from 77% in FY24, due in part to £37 million in adjusted working capital outflows tied to capital-intensive project growth and extended payment terms from some retail clients.
Organic growth remains a pressure point. Jefferies forecasts 7% organic revenue growth for FY26 and FY27, above consensus, but pointed to difficult prior-year comparisons, a competitive pricing environment, and muted organic expectations from Marlowe, which is projected to grow at 4% annually through FY27.
Mitie has targeted an EBITA margin above 5% by FY27, but Jefferies estimates most of the improvement will be acquisition-driven.
The group margin is expected to reach 5.1% in FY27, up from 4.6% in FY25, with organic margin expansion of just 10 basis points.
FY26 is expected to be flat year over year, weighed by a £25 million inflation and National Insurance headwind, as well as the loss of higher-margin contracts disclosed in the company’s recent preliminary results.
Jefferies views the risk-reward profile as more balanced. The suspension of the buyback, integration risks from a material M&A deal, and a shift in focus contribute to the revised stance. The price target was cut to 145p, slightly below the June 12 closing price of 146.60p.