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Investig.com -- Jefferies downgraded biopharmasecutical company UCB to “underperform” from “buy” rating in a recent note, citing slowing growth momentum for its key immunology drug Bimzelx and forecasting a 10%-15% downside to consensus sales estimates from 2026 onward.
Shares of the Brussels-headquartered company were down 2.5% at 04:27 ET (08:27 GMT).
The downgrade follows a slowdown in U.S. unit growth for Bimzelx, which treats psoriasis and hidradenitis suppurativa.
Jefferies said unit pen growth has eased week over week, indicating weaker underlying demand as “initial loading doses become a smaller share of total volumes.”
With Bimzelx expected to make up around 50% of UCB’s total 2030 consensus revenue, the analysts said upgrades “are unlikely in the near term.”
The brokerage also flagged that new therapy starts have plateaued, suggesting limited incremental demand despite expanded market access.
Jefferies said the trend “may reflect lower access to program contributions, tighter payer control, or an exhaustion of bolus patients,” noting that the slowdown “has been present for a number of weeks.”
Jefferies now forecasts 2026 revenue of €8.18 billion and EBITDA of €2.75 billion, below consensus estimates of €8.32 billion and €2.84 billion.
The brokerage set a price target of €212, representing a 14% downside from the prior day’s close of €246.40.
For 2025, Jefferies expects €7.40 billion in revenue and €2.25 billion in EBITDA, both down about 3% from earlier forecasts.
Pricing risks also weighed on the downgrade. The brokerage said Bimzelx “is a lot more expensive in the US on a per-patient basis than in Europe (6x difference),” with Medicaid making up about 27% of its patient base, compared with roughly 10% across the industry.
Jefferies warned that potential “Most Favoured Nation” drug pricing rules could pressure UCB more than peers.
Analysts now model €6.3 billion in Bimzelx sales by 2032, 10% below consensus at €7 billion, citing weaker unit trends and a smaller hidradenitis suppurativa market than expected.
“After a very strong launch in psoriasis, prescription growth in the US seems to have steadied,” the analysts said, adding that Jefferies sees “downside risk to lofty estimates in 2026.”