Jefferies starts MYR Group at “hold,” sees limited upside despite solid outlook

Published 15/08/2025, 12:48
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Investing.com -- Jefferies has initiated coverage on MYR Group Inc. with a “hold” rating and a $202 price target, citing strong fundamentals and sector tailwinds but limited upside at current valuations. 

The brokerage’s blended valuation approach applies equal weights to 2026 P/E, EV/EBITDA, free cash flow yield and DCF, with target multiples derived from both transmission and distribution (T&D) peers (60%) and commercial and industrial (C&I) peers (40%) to reflect differing margins, growth profiles and market exposures.

MYR Group operates as a pure-play electrical engineering and construction company, with a core focus on utility T&D and a diversified C&I business that includes data centers, transportation, clean energy and healthcare projects. 

Jefferies projects consolidated revenues to rise from $3.6 billion in 2025 to $4.5 billion in 2028, representing a 7.6% CAGR. 

EBITDA is forecast to grow at a 19.2% CAGR from 2023–2028, aided by operating leverage and margin expansion in the T&D segment. 

EPS is expected to climb from $7.23 in 2025 to $9.92 in 2028, though Jefferies’ estimates are below consensus in the outer years due to more conservative assumptions on margins and revenue growth.

The brokerage highlights that MYR Group’s T&D segment is positioned to benefit from accelerating utility capital expenditure plans, enhanced master service agreements and potential large-scale transmission project awards. 

However, the company’s limited exposure to faster-growing end-markets compared to peers such as Quanta Services (PWR) and MasTec (MTZ) caps its growth potential. 

The C&I segment, while diversified and growing at a high-single-digit pace, carries structurally lower margins of 4–6%.

Jefferies notes MYR Group’s conservative balance sheet, with leverage at 0.46x versus the peer average of 1.4x, provides flexibility for growth, though near-term M&A is unlikely given the organic opportunities available. 

The brokerage views shares as fairly valued given the current price level and awaits a better entry point for a more compelling risk-reward profile.

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