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Investing.com -- Jefferies has upgraded Smurfit WestRock (NYSE:WRK) (SW) to "buy," raising its price target to $55 from $44, citing improved confidence in the company’s integration of WestRock and its commercial execution, in a note dated Monday.
At the same time, it downgraded Packaging (NYSE:PKG) Corporation of America to “hold,” noting valuation constraints despite continued strong performance.
Smurfit trades at a significant discount to peers, 34% below Packaging Corporation of America and 25% below International Paper, based on Jefferies’ 2025 estimates. The brokerage believes this gap will narrow as Smurfit executes on synergy targets and improves investor transparency.
Management expects at least $400 million in commercial synergies from its North American box business, with additional $400 million in cost synergies.
Given WRK’s historically low margins, achieving 4% EBITDA margins on roughly $10 billion in sales would meet the commercial target.
However, Smurfit sees potential for 8%–12% margins, in line with Smurfit Kappa (IR:SKG)’s legacy performance, which could imply as much as $800 million in commercial benefits.
Under new leadership, Smurfit has shifted away from WRK’s volume-first model, giving box plant managers profit-and-loss responsibilities and tying compensation to EBITDA and free cash flow.
Service levels have also improved, with on-time delivery metrics rising from the 70% range to 95–97%.
The company is walking away from unprofitable contracts, even if it means box shipments will lag the broader market.
It has begun renegotiating three-year box contracts at market rates and introducing value-added services, such as shelf-ready packaging, to help customers reduce costs and increase sales.
Jefferies noted that integration has been steady despite initial concerns about WRK’s higher cost structure. Smurfit’s leadership pointed out that WRK’s assets were well capitalized but had been poorly managed.
The commercial shift aligns with broader industry trends, as International Paper also transitions to a value-over-volume approach.
The brokerage flagged a more rational industry structure. North American containerboard capacity is expected to decline by 5.4% in 2025, with projected operating rates stabilizing in the mid-90% range.
Smurfit and International Paper now command a combined 47% share of the market, supporting price discipline.
Smurfit has three to four weeks of visibility in its short-cycle business but has issued full-year guidance earlier than usual to align with U.S. investor expectations.
Smurfit does not plan to divest its boxboard segment but is evaluating conversion of a mill due to supply-demand imbalances and low vertical integration in SBS.
Management expressed confidence that containerboard prices should hold in the absence of a recession.
Jefferies believes that, without requiring major capital expenditures, Smurfit can deliver returns comparable to Packaging Corporation of America through improved commercial focus and service.
As Smurfit progresses on integration and narrows the return gap with peers, Jefferies expects the company’s valuation to rise.