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Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has downgraded AIB Group (OTC:AIBRF) (AIBG) to “neutral,” citing concerns over unaccounted policy risks related to tariffs and taxes that could impact the Irish banking sector, in a note dated Friday.
The downgrade follows a significant year-to-date re-rating of AIBG’s price-to-earnings ratio by 20%, which J.P. Morgan believes leaves little room for downside protection in an increasingly uncertain economic environment.
The key factors behind the downgrade center on potential policy changes in the U.S. that could directly affect Ireland’s economic landscape.
The country’s reliance on trade with the U.S.—which accounts for roughly 32% of Irish goods exports, a far higher proportion than seen in most European economies—means that any shift in trade tariffs or corporate tax policy could have broad implications.
The possibility of an increase in U.S. corporate tax rates to 15% has been identified as a potential risk, as it could discourage multinational companies from reinvesting in Ireland.
Additionally, with multinationals contributing approximately 84% of Ireland’s corporate tax receipts and playing a significant role in employment and economic output, any capex or relocation decisions could have secondary effects on bank revenues and asset quality.
J.P. Morgan sees AIBG’s valuation as relatively expensive compared to its European banking sector peers.
While the brokerage acknowledges that AIBG continues to benefit from loan growth of 3-5% per year and maintains a solid capital position, it believes that the current valuation does not sufficiently discount the policy risks that could emerge.
The analysis suggests that if additional taxation or tariffs were imposed, the Irish government might seek alternative fiscal strategies, potentially increasing bank levies or reducing tax benefits, which could negatively affect bank profitability.
Despite the downgrade, J.P. Morgan still prefers AIBG over Bank of Ireland Group (BIRG), which remains underweight.
AIBG’s stronger return on tangible equity forecast of 13.3% for 2026 and higher capital generation position it better than BIRG, whose return forecast stands at 12.5%.
However, the analysts suggest that further upside for AIBG may be capped due to its exposure to Irish-specific policy risks, which remain more pronounced than in other European banking markets.