Oklo stock tumbles as Financial Times scrutinizes valuation
Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has downgraded Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to “neutral” from “overweight” and reaffirmed a “neutral” stance on Morgan Stanley, saying valuations for both U.S. investment banks are stretched relative to European peers.
“While we see part of the premium justified, reflecting the superior IB franchise and higher through the cycle RoTE generation of GS and MS, we see the current valuation premium as too wide,” the analysts said in a note dated Tuesday.
Goldman Sachs trades at 14.0x its 2027 estimated price-to-earnings ratio and Morgan Stanley at 15.2x, roughly 80% to 90% higher than the European investment bank average of 7.6x.
J.P. Morgan said “we continue to prefer European IBs Barclays and DB,” which trade at 6.4x and 8.4x respectively. UBS remains the top pick for wealth management exposure at 10.1x.
The brokerage raised Goldman’s December 2026 price target to $750 from $625 and Morgan Stanley’s to $157 from $122 following strong third-quarter earnings.
The analysts lifted Goldman’s adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) forecasts by 6% for 2025, 3% for 2026 and 2% for 2027. For Morgan Stanley, the revisions were 15%, 10% and 9%, respectively.
Despite the upgrades, J.P. Morgan warned that “2027 consensus revenue estimates look challenging,” noting that its own EPS forecasts are 11% below consensus for Goldman and 5% below for Morgan Stanley.
J.P. Morgan expects investment banking fees to grow 8% year-over-year in 2026 and said deregulation in the United States may help profitability, but that the tailwind is already reflected in current valuations.
Goldman trades at 2.3x tangible book value (TBV) and Morgan Stanley at 3.3x. At those levels, “we do not see share buybacks as being very attractive,” the analysts wrote, estimating that each additional $5 billion in repurchases would lift EPS by only about 2% in 2027.
Even under a “blue sky scenario” assuming peak investment banking revenues and larger buybacks, J.P. Morgan estimated Goldman and Morgan Stanley would trade at 12.3x and 13.5x 2027 P/E, “which is not cheap” when compared to European IBs. Goldman’s return on tangible equity (RoTE) is forecast to reach 16.3% in 2027, and Morgan Stanley’s 19.7%, both in line with their targets.
The brokerage described Goldman as “on track to hit targets as execution comes through on IB fee pipeline but shares fairly valued.”
It also said Morgan Stanley’s goal of a 20% return on tangible common equity is in reach, but reflected in 14.9x P/E 2027E.
J.P. Morgan’s updated global investment bank ranking places Barclays, Deutsche Bank and UBS ahead of U.S. peers, followed by Société Générale, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas.