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Investing.com -- J.P. Morgan has named AngloGold Ashanti its top pick among EMEA gold miners, replacing Fresnillo (LON:FRES), as cost pressures and operational disruptions contrast with a supportive gold price outlook, in a note dated Tuesday.
The change comes ahead of second-quarter earnings and follows a 28% year-to-date rise in gold prices.
AngloGold was placed on ‘Positive Catalyst Watch’ ahead of its H1 2025 results on Aug. 1. Second-quarter gold production is forecast at 734,000 ounces, up 2% from the first quarter.
All-in sustaining costs (AISC) are expected at $1,743/oz, 5% above the top end of guidance. Free cash flow is projected at $575 million, with a potential dividend of $1.15/sh under the company’s 50% payout policy.
Full-year output is expected at 2.9Moz. J.P. Morgan raised its December 2026 price targets to $63/sh from $58/sh and ZAR1,140/sh from ZAR1,096.
Fresnillo is forecast to produce 12.2Moz of silver and 144,000oz of gold in Q2. The Mexican peso’s 11% year-to-date appreciation has raised concerns over the company’s initial low single-digit inflation guidance, with around 40% of costs peso-denominated.
H1 EBITDA is forecast at $945 million, in line with consensus. J.P. Morgan raised its price target to £18.50/sh from £14.50. Full-year production is estimated at 50.7Moz of silver and 569,000oz of gold.
Hochschild Mining is expected to report Q2 production of 55,300oz of gold and 1.84Moz of silver.
A six-week maintenance shutdown at Mara Rosa has led to a 15% cut in full-year gold equivalent output, now forecast at 310,000oz.
AISC is projected at $2,254/oz. H1 EBITDA is estimated at $160 million, 24% below consensus.
Net debt is expected to narrow slightly to $245 million from $248 million. The price target was lowered to £3.70/sh from £4.20.
Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI), not rated by J.P. Morgan, is forecast to produce 584,000oz of gold in Q2, up 24% year over year. AISC is estimated at $1,593/oz.
Salares Norte is expected to stabilize in Q4. H1 EBITDA is projected at $2.24 billion. Free cash flow is estimated at $729 million.
The Gold Road acquisition, which would consolidate ownership of the Gruyere mine, is expected to close in Q3.
J.P. Morgan Commodities Research expects gold to surpass $4,000/oz by Q2 2026, citing strong central bank buying, projected at 900 tonnes in 2025, and consistent demand from ETFs and China.
Gold demand is running at 710 tonnes per quarter, above the 350-tonne breakeven level for price stability.
Forecasts for gold prices are $3,300/oz in 2025 and $3,600/oz in 2026. Silver forecasts remain at $33/oz and $35/oz for the same years.
The divergence between commodity tailwinds and company-specific cost and production factors is expected to shape the second-quarter earnings season.