JPM adds Dollar Tree its focus list on growth, margin tailwinds from MPP rollout

Published 21/07/2025, 19:04
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Investing.com -- JP Morgan added Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR) to its Analyst Focus List as a growth idea and reiterated its Overweight rating, citing upside to near-term comps, long-term operating margin expansion from the multi-price-point (MPP) rollout, and significant share repurchase capacity through FY27.

The firm set a December 2026 price target of $138.

JP Morgan raised its Q2 same-store sales forecast to 5.3%, above the Street’s 4.7% and management’s “high-end” guidance of 3% to 5%.

The firm said base business strength and favorable elasticity on price adjustments support the beat, with further upside likely in the second half.

For FY25, JP Morgan models gross margin expansion of 70 basis points year-on-year, at the upper end of company guidance, and sees margin tailwinds continuing into FY26 from price actions, lower freight costs, and one-time re-ticketing expenses.

The note highlighted the MPP 3.0 store format, expected to reach over half the fleet by year-end, as a multi-year catalyst.

Drawing a parallel with Dollarama’s margin trajectory, JP Morgan sees DLTR’s operating margin expanding by 150bps from FY25 to FY27, reaching 10.2% versus Street estimates of 9.0%.

Capital deployment is another theme. JP Morgan expects more than $4 billion of share repurchase capacity through FY27, adding over $1 of EPS and contributing 300–400bps to annual EPS growth not yet captured in current models.

The firm sees potential for more than $8 in FY26 EPS and about $10 in FY27, implying a $200+ equity value longer-term.

Dollar General (NYSE:DG) was maintained at Neutral with a $95 price target. JP Morgan models in-line Q2 same-store sales and gross margin slightly below consensus, with incentive compensation and markdown activity weighing on SG&A.

The firm flagged potential consumer headwinds in 2H25 from SNAP benefit reductions.

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