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Investing.com -- Lam Research Co. was downgraded to underweight at Morgan Stanley, which said the chip-equipment maker’s recent outperformance is unlikely to continue into 2026.
Brokerage set a price target of $92, about 10% below current levels.
Analyst said Lam regained market share in recent years, helped by demand from NAND customers, orders from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., and sales to China.
After lagging peers in 2023, Lam’s shipments grew faster than the wider wafer fabrication equipment market in 2024 and are expected to extend that lead in 2025.
But Morgan Stanley expects growth drivers to fade. The bank forecasts Lam’s shipments will rise about 5% in 2026, in line with the broader market, as NAND demand cools and growth in China slows following two years of sharp gains. NAND and China together make up more than half of Lam’s shipments.
While its new revenue and profit forecasts for 2026 are slightly above Wall Street’s consensus, Morgan Stanley said investor expectations may already be higher, limiting share price upside.
Lam’s guidance for September-quarter sales also exceeded estimates, yet the stock fell the next day, a sign that the market was already pricing in stronger results, the analysts said.
The $92 target is based on applying an 18-times multiple to 2026 earnings, above the company’s long-term average, to reflect recent share gains.
Still, the analysts said Lam is likely to lag larger US semiconductor equipment peers as growth normalizes.
They noted that faster adoption of advanced chips at TSMC or stronger-than-expected sales in China could prove their cautious stance wrong.