Lancashire stock falls on profit miss and reserve concerns

Published 06/03/2025, 10:16
Lancashire stock falls on profit miss and reserve concerns

Investing.com -- Shares of Lancashire Holdings Limited (LON:LRE.L) tumbled by 7% following the company’s announcement of its second half of 2024 financial results, which revealed a pre-tax profit of $121 million, falling short of the consensus by 8%.

The miss was attributed to a weaker-than-expected insurance service result, which was down by 5.5% due to a combined ratio miss, and a 7% weaker investment result.

The insurer’s growth appeared more robust in the second half, with revenue climbing 16% YoY and exceeding consensus by 4.4%. However, the company flagged an increase in general reserve for events not in date amounting to $29.7 million, which contributed to a 4.3 percentage points combined ratio equivalent miss.

While natural catastrophe losses were slightly better than expected and reserve releases were higher, the underlying current year combined ratio for the second half of 2024 was worse than consesnus.

Despite the softer combined ratio, Lancashire announced a final dividend per share of $1.40, which was above the consensus forecast of $1.20 and included a special dividend of $0.25. The total dividend with respect to 2024 amounted to $294.3 million, representing a 92% payout.

The Bermuda solvency ratio stood at 270% at year-end, a decrease from approximately 291% at the first half of 2024.

After previously indicating a potential impact of US$145-165 million from the California wildfires, Lancashire continues to project a mid-teen return on equity (ROE) for 2025.

The company also expressed confidence in its ability to absorb a year of similar catastrophic losses as in 2024 on top of the January events, although this outlook is below the 20% consensus had prior to the pre-announcement.

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