Macquarie upgrades Atlassian on product momentum and attractive valuation

Published 10/04/2025, 18:06
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Investing.com -- Macquarie upgraded Atlassian Corp Plc (NASDAQ:TEAM) to "Outperform" from "Neutral" pointing to growing cross-departmental adoption, favourable near-term revenue catalysts, and an improved valuation profile.

The firm set a new 12-month price target of $270, implying a 29% total shareholder return from current levels.

Macquarie sees upside risk to FY25 revenue guidance, in part due to 15–25% Data Center price increases on post-February renewals.

Longer-term, customer feedback suggests Atlassian is gaining traction with its "wall-to-wall" expansion strategy. No changes were made to earnings estimates.

Following Atlassian’s “TEAM ‘25” customer and investor forum in Anaheim, Macquarie highlighted increased customer interest in broader use cases beyond software development.

The launch of the Teamwork Collection, a new cloud bundle combining Jira, Confluence, Loom, and AI-powered Rovo agents, was cited as a key step in extending the company’s reach into non-technical functions such as HR, asset management, and customer service.

The bundle supports TEAM’s strategic push to unify its apps through agentic AI, making workflows more dynamic and user-friendly, Macquarie wrote.

The firm believes the integration can enhance productivity and user experience while driving enterprise-wide adoption.

While the price target was lowered from $317 to $270 due to lower peer multiples, Macquarie said TEAM’s valuation now screens attractively across EV/revenue and EV/free cash flow metrics.

The stock now trades in-line with peers versus its historical 15% premium, as per the note.

Macquarie also highlighted the company’s AI-led innovation, particularly Rovo’s capabilities and growing third-party integration. Atlassian’s architecture evolution, toward modular apps with simplified navigation and bundled offerings, was seen as key to supporting long-term scalability.

TEAM is set to report March-quarter earnings on May 1, with Macquarie pointing to CY25 revenue visibility as a potential catalyst.

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