Markets may price 50bp Fed cut if CPI softens today, JPMorgan’s Stealey says

Published 11/09/2025, 11:12

Investing.com -- A weak U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading on Thursday could lead markets to anticipate a 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, though multiple quarter-point reductions are more probable, according to JPMorgan Asset Management.

"25 basis points over the next few meetings would make a lot more sense to me," Iain Stealey, international CIO of fixed income at the firm, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.

Stealey noted that Fed policymakers have not signaled any openness to a larger half-point cut.

He explained that U.S. yields are moving lower because the central bank is "credibly" preparing to reduce rates, with the action driven by labor market weakness rather than political pressure.

The asset manager believes fixed income currently offers better value than equities on a risk-adjusted basis, though he expects risk assets to remain supported by Fed rate cuts.

Meanwhile, tariffs are expected to contribute to ongoing price increases across several consumer categories including household furnishings, apparel, and recreation commodities.

Analysts anticipate tariffs will continue driving goods price inflation over the coming quarters.

Other inflation pressures may come from airfares, which are likely to increase due to strong seasonal factors, while lodging away from home prices are also expected to climb.

The August inflation data is due today at 08:30AM ET.

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