Markets pricing in Ukraine/Russia peace - deVere’s Green

Published 13/02/2025, 13:16
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Investing.com -- Global markets have experienced a surge and the US dollar has dropped in response to President Donald Trump’s announcement that the US and Russia will commence negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. This development has led to an increase in the value of Asian equities and European stock futures, indicating optimism for a potential decrease in geopolitical risks that have caused disruption for several years.

The CEO of deVere Group, Nigel Green, noted that the markets are already adjusting to the potential for peace, despite the remaining uncertainties. The decline in the dollar’s value suggests that the demand for safe-haven assets may decrease due to reduced geopolitical uncertainty. This could benefit risk-sensitive currencies and emerging markets, particularly if the situation de-escalates.

President Trump confirmed on his Truth Social platform that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed to work together closely to ensure no more lives are lost. This announcement marks a significant shift in the direction of the conflict. It also raises questions about Europe’s role in postwar security and reconstruction, as there are fears among European officials of being left out of negotiations.

According to Green, the financial world’s desire for stability after nearly three years of economic difficulties stemming from the war is evident in the market’s reaction. Sectors that have been most affected by supply chain disruptions and energy volatility, such as equities, are already showing positive responses.

Green further stated that this significant development could reshape global markets. If the negotiations lead to de-escalation, a repricing of risk assets could occur, allowing capital to flow back into European equities, industrials, and consumer sectors that have been burdened by uncertainty.

The energy markets will be a key area of focus. If war-related supply risks decrease, oil prices could drop, providing relief to economies strained by inflation. However, the long-term effects will depend on the speed at which diplomatic progress is made. Any changes in energy dynamics could have wide-ranging effects on equities, particularly in oil-exporting nations and companies that have profited from high prices.

Investors will also need to evaluate how Europe manages the potential economic burden of postwar reconstruction. As the US-Russia negotiations progress, European leaders have expressed concerns about bearing a significant portion of the cost. This could lead to increased government borrowing and fiscal spending in the region, which would have consequences for bond markets and currency valuations.

Green added that the war and its economic aftermath have put pressure on European markets. If peace negotiations advance, investment flows into the region could pick up, creating opportunities in undervalued assets.

Emerging markets could also benefit from the de-escalation. A reduction in tension could stimulate demand for risk assets, bolstering equities in regions that have dealt with capital outflows. Green also noted that a weaker dollar could support emerging market debt and currencies, improving conditions for global investment.

In conclusion, Green stated that the prospect of peace will likely be a significant factor influencing markets for the foreseeable future.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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