Oppenheimer upped their price target on Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) after the US drugmaker recently saw its respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine, known as mRESVIA, approved by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
According to Oppenheimer, mResvia is entering the adult market (ages 60 and above), where it will compete with two established vaccines from GSK and Pfizer (NYSE:PFE).
RSV poses a significant economic burden on societies, nearly as large as influenza. In the US, while most RSV infections are mild, severe cases can result in hospitalization and, occasionally, death.
In 2023, GSK and Pfizer both received approval for their highly competitive RSV vaccines. Now, mResvia has become the third RSV vaccine approved for adults 60 and older.
“We increase US penetration estimates as we believe mResvia is competitive as an RSV vaccine, although expectations might be too low,” analysts said in a note.
“With a projected total accessible market (TAM) of ~$10B currently, growing to $12.5B by 2027, we believe that a $1B–$2B revenue run rate is viable for mResvia,” they added. “However, with MRNA's Phase 3 data from higher-risk and frail adults, combined with a strong product profile, upside is possible.”
As such, the firm raised its target 12 to 18-month target on MRNA from $163 to $179, implying more than 20% upside from the last closing price.