JFrog stock rises as Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Overweight rating after strong Q2
Investing.com -- Moody’s Ratings has downgraded the issuer and senior unsecured ratings of Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. (TYO:3382) (Seven & i) to A3 from A2, shifting the outlook to negative from a previous review for a downgrade.
The downgrade comes in response to a significant decrease in operating profit, which is expected to impact credit metrics such as debt-to-EBITDA over the next 12 to 18 months. Dean Enjo, Moody’s Ratings Vice President and Senior Analyst, stated that the downgrade also reflects increased risk tolerance which will limit debt reduction, as demonstrated by the recent announcement of a JPY2 trillion share buyback. The review for downgrade, initiated on March 18, 2025, has now been concluded.
Enjo further highlighted that the negative outlook represents the risk of a further decline in consumer spending and uncertainty surrounding the group’s future capital structure.
In fiscal 2024, Seven & i’s operating profit experienced a significant drop, primarily due to rising costs and inflationary pressures in its North American and Japanese convenience store operations. The recent deconsolidation of its cashflow generating Superstore and Seven Bank businesses will also slow the pace of operating profit and EBITDA recovery over the next 12 to 18 months. Consequently, Moody’s projects a modest improvement to the low-3x level over the next 12 to 18 months from 3.5x in fiscal 2024, on a preliminary basis.
The company’s JPY2 trillion share buyback program through fiscal 2030 indicates an increased financial risk tolerance while prioritizing shareholder returns over creditor interests. These buybacks will be funded with cash proceeds from the deconsolidation of its non-convenience store businesses in Japan and an IPO of a non-majority stake in its wholly-owned subsidiary 7-Eleven, Inc. (SEI, Baa2, P-1 RUR). Despite preventing an immediate worsening of liquidity, these shareholder-friendly actions are expected to limit the debt reduction required to improve credit metrics.
The company’s A3 ratings reflect its leading market share among convenience stores in Japan and the US, significant revenue scale with diversification into markets outside its home market of Japan, strong liquidity and substantial free cash flow. However, high leverage due to declining EBITDA and high debt from a series of acquisitions, along with rising inflationary pressures and declining consumer demand in its major markets, constrain the ratings.
The negative outlook considers the risk of a further decline in retail spending in major markets, such as Japan and the US, within the next 12 to 18 months. It also takes into account the uncertainty regarding the group’s future capital structure during this period.
While an upgrade is seen as unlikely over the next 12-18 months, a stable outlook could be considered if the company significantly improves profit from its North American and Japanese convenience store businesses and reduces its leverage to the low-3x level or below, on a sustained basis.
Downgrade of the ratings might occur if the company fails to improve profits in its Japanese or North American convenience store businesses, or if the company’s debt-to-EBITDA continues to exceed the low-3x level or the company engages in further debt-funded acquisitions.
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